Subjunctivo y Futuro
En un artículo sobre el crecimiento de la población en ciudades, yo leí esta frase:
"Hoy, en promedio, uno de cada dos habitantes del planeta vive en una ciudad, y se espera que dentro de apenas 35 años la proporción suba a dos de cada tres."
He puesto la palabra que me confunde en negritas. Pienso que "suba" es el conjugación subjuntivo de subir. ¿La conjugación debe ser el futuro, "subará," en lugar de "suba"?
Gracias, -Brandon
3 Answers
Usamos el subjuntivo con esperar que. Como...
...se espera que dentro de apenas 35 años la proporción suba...
Jtdaniel is correct...Usamos el subjuntivo con esperar que. We (Spanish speakers) use the subjunctive with esperar que.
Esperar que is followed by the subjunctive much, much more than it is by the indicative.
Usually "Esperar que" and its most common meanings trigger the subjunctive. It often means "to hope" and is a classic case of the subjunctive being required after a verb expressing desire or some hope for the future that involves someone other than himself. (Esperar, without que, is followed by the infinitive if there is just a single subject)
However, I have read in various sources that when "esperar que" has the meaning of "is expected to" (as I think it does here) that the indicative (future or conditional) can be used. I don't think it is obligatory however. This makes sense, because "is expected to" is a lot like "it is thought that" which would use creer que or pensar que (or similar) and the indicative in the next phrase.
Here is a link which discusses subjunctive vs indicative after esperar que:
Even when the verb following "esperar que" is in the present subjunctive, keep in mind that the present subjunctive often has a future meaning. In fact with "esperar que" I would say that it usually has a future meaning. Also, keep in mind that the future subjunctive is hardly used as all...where is once was used, it has been replaced almost totally by the present subjunctive.
Considering all this, there is no problem reading this sentence and interpreting the future meaning and a good English translation would use the future tense no matter what tense or mood is used in Spanish. Some people might debate whether the subjunctive or indicative should have been used in this sentence, but no matter which is used, I don't think the meaning is changed.
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Footnote:
Of course the Spanish writer doesn't think in English when deciding what verb to use. He thinks in Spanish and may use the indicative if he has a high confidence level in the thing that he is expecting. On the other hand, he might just use the subjunctive because he is less certain about it happening or just because he is just used to using the subjunctive after esperar que.
Only after the writing is done, can a bilingual reader determine whether "expected to" is meant. If the Spanish author used the indicative it is easier to come to this conclusion. If he used the subjunctive, other context could allow the bilingual reader to conclude that "is expected to is meant." In this case, I came to that conclusion because I don't think he means that it is hoped that city dwellers will increase to 2 out of every three. It's just expected, right? I think the original poster came to this same conclusion, and therefore was expecting the future tense.
I think most Spanish speakers would just choose a different verb followed by que if they wanted to use the future tense in the next phrase. Creer, Pensar, Predecir, Pronosticar, Anticipar and several others come to mind.
I am not a native speaker. Please correct me if I wrote anything that is not correct so that I can continue to learn.
Jtaniel is correct because esperar does not indicate a fact. It is not even someone´s firm belief but just an expectation.
If you want to use the future tense subirá you can do so, but now you state a fact: ... y dentro de apenas 35 años la proporción subirá a dos de cada tres.
