Lest We Forget..

Question

Fue mí amigo mas valorado! Tenía la capacidad a saber lo que yo pensaba! Lo voy a echar de menos!

He was my most valued friend! He had tha ability to know what I was thinking. I will miss him!

Berlín (AP).- El Pulpo Paul, famoso por predecir correctamente los resultados de partidos del Mundial de Sudáfrica, ahora tiene su propio monumento. El acuario Sea Life en Oberhausen presentó este jueves una estatua de una de las estrellas de la Copa del Mundo del año pasado: una réplica plástico de dos metros de alto de Paul aferrado a un balón de fútbol con sus ocho tentáculos.

Paul the Octopus, famous for predicting correctly the results of games during the World Cup of Soccer, has his own monument. Sea Life Aquarium of Oberhausen presented this Thursday,a statue of one of the stars of the World Cup last year: a plastic replica two meters high of Pulpo Paul grabbing on to a soccer ball with his eight tentacles!

I have learnt a new word.... Is "lest" very used, Joe? - cogumela, Jan 20, 2011

Lest is not often used. It has a poetic flare and is used in an oratorical sense. - Leatha, Jan 20, 2011

A good word for more highbrow literature. - Leanahtan, Jan 20, 2011

I learnt it too. - Dakie, Jan 20, 2011

Just in case there are any doubts "lest" = "unless" or "in case" - ian-hill, Jan 20, 2011

Or short for the name Lester. Alrigh' Lest? Yeah, no' bad, pint? - afowen, Jan 21, 2011

Answer 1

Nice! Erecting a monument to ignorance and superstition!.

The octopus "predicted" correctly the games 8 times. The probability of that happening is 1 in 256, or a 0.4%, which people without a mathematical background (like most news reporters) say it cannot be a coincidence. Wrong reasoning!!

How many people in the entire planet could have tried something so unscientific to read the future, just by asking their dogs or their guinea pigs to do a miracle, or simply counting the times the cow burps in a day? Let's say 100 people in the entire planet (which is a low estimate) tried something so ridiculous. What are the chances of one of these ridiculous methods guessing correctly the 8 games purely by luck? 32.4%. What if 1000 people tried? 98%. In other words, 1000 people all over the world checks whether their lizard or worm is a clairvoyant, the chances of one of them having a "magic" pet is 98%, which means that one of them is likely to call the press to witness the "miracle", while the others simple will remain silent. It only takes 4015 unscientific people trying to do this so that the chances of one of them guessing right by accident becomes 99.99999%. I am sure there are more than 4015 people without a knowledge of statistics trying these naive things, so what's the big deal?

I can't believe people are so... oh, well.... Even the press taking pictures!! Nomsky (probably rightfully) believes that these are the kind of techniques that allow governments to keep people controlled, so they worry about nonsense instead of really important issues.

By the way, you know that the "octopus" got 2 wrong in 2008, right? Its performance for 2008, in terms of probability, is only 15 out of 64, or 23.4%, which is what scientists call a coincidence.

Let's consider 2008 and 2010 together. What are the chances of both results (and failures) happening together? How many anti-scientists are needed so that the probability of one of their pets guessing all those results by chance is 99%? Only 1168 people in the entire planet. Amazing! This octopus was really out of this world!

Lazarus, it is only a joke - 002262dd, Jan 20, 2011

It would be quite a coincidence if there were no coincidences. - Stadt, Jan 20, 2011

I know it is a joke... from you, Joe, but not for everybody. I work in the education sector. I know what's going on. - lazarus1907, Jan 20, 2011

Some people less smart than you will take it literally and seriously (I have met many of them, personally), so don't underestimate the power of human stupidity. - lazarus1907, Jan 20, 2011

I was hoping that at least someone found my calculations interesting... It took me a while to get those figures. - lazarus1907, Jan 20, 2011

Pues tú aún crees que acertaba! Yo ni me creo eso, para mí que le ponían la comida en la urna del país donde más pagaban las televisiones. - cogumela, Jan 20, 2011

¡Jajajaja! ¡Al menos alguien entiende mi sentido del humor! - lazarus1907, Jan 20, 2011

y ¡no seas tan gruñón! :) - cogumela, Jan 20, 2011

¿Gruñón? ¿Quieres que te gruña, o qué? Jejejeje - lazarus1907, Jan 20, 2011

Who let the mathematician rain on the party? ;-) You speak for me as well, Lazarus, although I was to lazy to do the calculations. - Leanahtan, Jan 20, 2011

¿Me estás llamando agresivo? ¡A que te meto en la cara? ¡Jajajaja! - lazarus1907, Jan 20, 2011

I am liking your work Lazarus, clearly the post was jokey but the phenomenon detailed is good cause for despair and railing! - afowen, Jan 21, 2011

And empathy on the 'math' front, I'd go to those lengths for purposes of rant, banter and sheer hell. - afowen, Jan 21, 2011

Answer 2

Some people just never relax , Joe

This is a funny story, el pulpo fue genial, sobre todo porque predijo que ganabamos

Que mal que ganara España :) - Dakie, Jan 20, 2011

I could have done that - but I'm not a pulpo. - ian-hill, Jan 20, 2011

Answer 3

A fitting tribute for a dedicated sports fan!

It never occurred to me that anyone actually took his predictions seriously.

in my area we have a groundhog who comes out one day a year and predicts how much longer winter will last. It is all dependent on whether he sees his shadow or not! lol There is news coverage and a little ceremony too. It is all in good fun.

Discrimination! Call the police!!! The groundhog was doing its job! - lazarus1907, Jan 20, 2011

heehee - margaretbl, Jan 20, 2011

Answer 4

I shall bow in silence eight separate times!

That is even more special than our Rocky monument!

I think this statue is now on a pedestal in a grassy area near the foot of the steps to the right of the Philadelphia Museum of Art. - pesta, Jan 20, 2011

Yes, that is its final resting place....for now! Bus tours of the city drive by so people can take pictures with it. - Nicole-B, Jan 20, 2011

Answer 5

W o W!!!

Esto es tan divertido, jeje, Joe, genial

Answer 6

Lazarus, do you really think that people believe that he was a prophet.? Take it easy.

Yes, I was talking to lazarus - Dakie, Jan 20, 2011

I didn't imply that you believe it, but a lot of people do (I live in a small city in the middle of nowhere, and I know people who do believe it, so imagine the rest of the world). - lazarus1907, Jan 20, 2011

The press would never spend money, time and resources on something no one believes or care about. Hence, a significant percentage of the population believes it. - lazarus1907, Jan 20, 2011

Who says the press wouldn't spend money on something no one believes in? So long as it makes them money, why not? - Leanahtan, Jan 20, 2011

At least things are ok now, by the way I actually thought that your Calculations were great, I just couldn't realize where did you get them. - Dakie, Jan 20, 2011

It's fantastic that you like math too. :) - Dakie, Jan 20, 2011

People believe all kinds of nonsense without reason, black cats, ladders, broken mirrors. Throw a bit of 'evidence' their way and they are veritable putty, ready for moulding and little else... - afowen, Jan 21, 2011

Leanahtan - my thoughts are that if the 'news' is not credible to the target audience then they will show no interest, sales will drop and therefore revenue- Of course lots of people believe this nonsense... - afowen, Jan 21, 2011

Answer 7

An old joke.

My uncle could A L W A Y S tell you which horse would win a race-

and even more amazing why it had not, after the race.

Answer 8

Wow that is so cool